Fortum Oyj
Fortum Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation and sale of electricity and heat to private and business customers in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Poland, and internationally. It operates through Generation, Consumer Solutions, and Other Operations segments. The Generation segment…
Fortum Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation and sale of electricity and heat to private and business customers in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Poland, and internationally. It operates through Generation, Consumer Solutions, and Other Operations segments. The Generation segment offers low-carbon hydro, nuclear, onshore wind, and solar power generation; district heating and cooling; and decarbonization services. The Consumer Solutions segment offers invoicing and customer services; electricity and related value-added products; and digital services for consumers, including small- and medium-sized enterprises. It is also involved in the electricity and gas retail business; power trading and energy supply services; industrial site development; and battery recycling activities. The company was formerly known as IVO-Neste Yhtymä Oyj and changed its name to Fortum Oyj in June 1998. The company has strategic partnership with Google for nuclear power purchase agreement. Fortum Oyj was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Free-cash-flow DCF disagrees strongly.
Other models: EUR 4.51–17.48 (median 14.34). The recommended value is 56% above that median, so treat the upside with extra caution.
Why: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Uses reported dividends of EUR 1.4000 per share from TTM through 30 Sep 2026, with 2.2% perpetual growth (base growth capped at the terminal rate) and 8.6% discount rates. The range varies growth and discount assumptions by 1 percentage point; it is illustrative, not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 3% (limited from 4.33% because the latest annual revenue declined), discount rate 8.60%, terminal growth 2.20%. See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 4.3% (sector default 4.0%, own revenue history -10.0%, analyst revenue consensus 11.7%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 11.7% a year; the growth assumption used is 3.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.
Compare models- Recommended: Dividend discount model — EUR 22.36 (-3.3%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— EUR 14.34 (-38.0%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— EUR 4.74 (-79.5%)
Not used: Not chosen: Dividend discount model ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— EUR 4.51 (-80.5%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— EUR 17.48 (-24.4%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— EUR 4.74 (-79.5%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— EUR 34.27 (+48.2%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear EUR 16.87 | -37.1% |
| Base EUR 22.36 | -3.5% |
| Bull EUR 32.84 | 29.6% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At EUR 23.13 the market implies perpetual dividend growth of about this rate (discount rate 8.6%).
Compare: the market implies 2.4% a year, this model assumes 2.2%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Dividend discount model value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price. Dividend growth cannot exceed the long-run rate, so duplicate capped scenarios are omitted.
| Growth \ Discount | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.8% | 16.37 | 14.63 | 13.22 | 12.06 | 11.09 |
| 0.2% | 21.92 | 18.96 | 16.70 | 14.92 | 13.49 |
| 2.2% | 32.52 | 26.50 | 22.36 | 19.34 | 17.03 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 72 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 3 of 5 years profitable | 12 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 4 of 5 years | 16 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue -7.6% a year | 4 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 1.2x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 26% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Utilities
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORTUM.HE (this company) | EUR 23.13 | -3.5% | 25.7 | 2.6 | 6.1% | 72 |
| ED Consolidated Edison | USD 119.93 | 30.7% | 20.0 | 1.7 | 2.7% | 78 |
| ENGI.PA Engie SA | EUR 23.81 | 16.6% | 15.8 | 1.8 | 7.5% | 76 |
| D Dominion Energy | USD 68.26 | -3.4% | 22.2 | 2.0 | 3.9% | 76 |
| CMS CMS Energy | USD 68.66 | -3.5% | 24.7 | 2.2 | 3.3% | 64 |
| CNA.L Centrica plc | GBP 1.50 | -5.9% | – | 2.3 | 3.3% | 92 |
| EIX Edison International | USD 59.61 | -8.9% | 6.3 | 1.3 | 5.7% | 52 |
| NTGY.MC Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. | EUR 29.30 | -9.7% | 14.0 | 3.0 | 5.9% | 70 |
| NEE NextEra Energy | USD 86.48 | -13.8% | 15.6 | 2.9 | 2.8% | 72 |
| Peer median | 15.8 | 2.1 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: EUR 0.74 per share · yield 3.20% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 0.740 |
| 2025 | 1.400 |
| 2024 | 1.150 |
| 2023 | 0.910 |
| 2022 | 1.140 |
| 2021 | 1.120 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 14:38
| Revenue | EUR 5,674,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | EUR 1,458,000,000 |
| EBIT | EUR 1,133,000,000 |
| Net income | EUR 806,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | EUR 367,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | EUR 499,000,000 |
| Debt | EUR 4,136,000,000 |
| Cash | EUR 2,325,000,000 |
| Working capital | EUR 2,184,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 897,264,000 |