UPM-Kymmene Oyj
UPM-Kymmene Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the forest-based bioindustry worldwide. The company offers softwood, birch, and eucalyptus pulp for tissue, specialty papers, packaging papers, graphic papers, and board; sawn timber for joinery, packaging, furniture, planning, and constru…
UPM-Kymmene Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the forest-based bioindustry worldwide. The company offers softwood, birch, and eucalyptus pulp for tissue, specialty papers, packaging papers, graphic papers, and board; sawn timber for joinery, packaging, furniture, planning, and construction industries; and wood-based renewable diesel and renewable naphtha for transport and petrochemical industry. It also generates electricity through hydro, thermal, and nuclear power plants; provides financial portfolio management services, as well as engages in forestry water protection. Further, it provides wood and wood-based biomass, and forestry services for forest investors and owners; biomedical products, such as nano-fibrillar cellulose for clinical and life science applications; wood-based lignin products for industrial use; and wood-based biochemicals for replacing fossil-based raw materials. It also manufactures plywood and veneer products. It serves distributors, industrial users, publishers, cataloguers, retailers, printing houses, merchants, converters, and label stock manufacturers; label printers; brand owners; and producers of tissue, board, specialty, and graphic paper. The company was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Helsinki, Finland.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Free-cash-flow DCF agrees.
Why: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Showing the FCFF (steady state) you selected on the company card, using 2.23% growth, 2.6% terminal growth and 9.8% discount. The range varies these assumptions slightly; it is illustrative, not investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 2.23%, discount rate 9.80%, terminal growth 2.60% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 2.2% (sector default 5.8%, own revenue history -6.2%, analyst revenue consensus 4.7%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 4.7% a year; the growth assumption used is 2.2%.
Adjust assumptions
Show the recommended model instead
Why this model: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.
Compare models- Recommended: Dividend discount model — EUR 20.26 (-9.4%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— EUR 17.62 (-21.2%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— EUR 20.93 (-6.4%)
Not used: Not chosen: Dividend discount model ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— EUR 21.36 (-4.5%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— EUR 29.15 (+30.3%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— EUR 20.95 (-6.3%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— EUR 60.40 (+170.0%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear EUR 15.24 | -46.7% |
| Base EUR 21.36 | -4.7% |
| Bull EUR 32.18 | 30.5% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 70 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 4 of 5 years | 16 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue -5.4% a year | 4 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 2.0x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 16% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Materials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPM.HE (this company) | EUR 22.37 | -10.4% | 17.1 | 1.2 | 6.7% | 70 |
| MT.AS ArcelorMittal S.A. | EUR 54.26 | 41.2% | 25.6 | 0.8 | 1.1% | 70 |
| CF CF Industries | USD 117.79 | -2.3% | 8.2 | 2.0 | 2.2% | 84 |
| HOLN.SW Holcim AG | CHF 72.98 | -7.2% | 3.1 | – | 4.2% | 74 |
| AMCR Amcor | USD 44.22 | -16.6% | 18.9 | 0.6 | 6.0% | 90 |
| YAR.OL Yara International ASA | NOK 396.60 | -16.9% | 7.6 | 1.2 | 1.2% | 74 |
| MOS Mosaic Company (The) | USD 21.96 | -33.2% | 13.0 | – | 4.0% | 79 |
| VSVS.L Vesuvius plc | GBP 4.49 | -36.1% | 21.5 | 1.0 | 5.2% | 68 |
| SSAB-A.ST SSAB AB | SEK 90.56 | -56.7% | 15.9 | 1.2 | 2.9% | 62 |
| Peer median | 14.4 | 1.1 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: EUR 1.50 per share · yield 6.71% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 1.500 |
| 2025 | 1.500 |
| 2024 | 1.500 |
| 2023 | 1.500 |
| 2022 | 1.300 |
| 2021 | 1.261 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 15:22
| Revenue | EUR 9,374,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | EUR 1,537,000,000 |
| EBIT | EUR 1,018,000,000 |
| Net income | EUR 688,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | EUR 1,006,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | EUR 359,000,000 |
| Debt | EUR 3,734,000,000 |
| Cash | EUR 663,000,000 |
| Working capital | EUR 1,521,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 527,323,999 |