NCC AB
NCC AB (publ) operates as a construction company in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland. The company operates through five segments: NCC Infrastructure, NCC Building Sweden, NCC Building Nordic, NCC Industry, and NCC Property Development. It builds residential buildings and offices, as well as con…
NCC AB (publ) operates as a construction company in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland. The company operates through five segments: NCC Infrastructure, NCC Building Sweden, NCC Building Nordic, NCC Industry, and NCC Property Development. It builds residential buildings and offices, as well as constructs schools, hospitals, stores, and warehouses. The company also designs, constructs, produces, and maintains infrastructure projects, such as tunnels, roads, and railways. In addition, it produces stone materials, asphalt, and paving products. Further, the company develops and sells commercial properties in metropolitan regions. The company was incorporated in 1935 and is headquartered in Solna, Sweden.Priced within the modelled range
Other models: SEK 18.51–234.82 (median 131.06). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Uses reported dividends of SEK 11.0000 per share from Fiscal year 2025, with 2% perpetual growth (base growth capped at the terminal rate) and 10% discount rates. The range varies growth and discount assumptions by 1 percentage point; it is illustrative, not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 2%, discount rate 10%, terminal growth 2.70% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 2.0% (sector default 6.2%, analyst revenue consensus -4.6%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 5.6% a year (Medium confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of -4.6% a year; the growth assumption used is 2.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.
Compare models- Recommended: Dividend discount model — SEK 140.25 (-25.2%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— SEK 18.51 (-90.1%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— SEK 126.55 (-32.5%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 7.5x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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FCFF (steady state)
— SEK 131.06 (-30.1%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 7.5x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— SEK 234.82 (+25.3%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— SEK 126.73 (-32.4%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 7.5x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— SEK 633.90 (+238.3%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear SEK 111.10 | -68.7% |
| Base SEK 140.25 | -33.6% |
| Bull SEK 188.83 | 0.8% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At SEK 187.40 the market implies perpetual dividend growth of about this rate (discount rate 10.0%).
Compare: the market implies 3.9% a year, this model assumes 2.0%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Dividend discount model value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price. Dividend growth cannot exceed the long-run rate, so duplicate capped scenarios are omitted.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0% | 107.80 | 98.00 | 89.83 | 82.92 | 77.00 |
| 0.0% | 137.50 | 122.22 | 110.00 | 100.00 | 91.67 |
| 2.0% | 187.00 | 160.29 | 140.25 | 124.67 | 112.20 |
| 2.7% | 213.15 | 179.32 | 154.75 | 136.11 | 121.47 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 46 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 3 of 5 years | 12 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue -0.1% a year | 4 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 2.7x EBITDA | 10 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 3% | 0 / 20 |
Peers in Industrials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCC-B.ST (this company) | SEK 187.40 | -33.6% | 129.1 | – | 5.9% | 62 |
| EZJ.L easyJet plc | GBP 6.84 | 74.5% | 10.6 | 1.5 | 1.7% | 78 |
| WAWI.OL Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA | NOK 160.60 | 64.7% | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.3% | 100 |
| IAG.L International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. | GBP 4.31 | 59.5% | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.8% | 92 |
| TPK.L Travis Perkins plc | GBP 6.45 | 55.4% | – | 0.8 | 2.1% | 46 |
| DFDS.CO DFDS A/S | DKK 153.20 | 47.3% | – | 0.6 | – | 64 |
| SRP.L Serco Group plc | GBP 2.79 | 45.8% | 19.8 | 3.3 | 1.5% | 82 |
| DG.PA VINCI SA | EUR 110.60 | 42.8% | 12.8 | 2.0 | 4.2% | 90 |
| HAFNI.OL Hafnia Limited | NOK 88.95 | 40.9% | 7.2 | 1.8 | 1.2% | 100 |
| Peer median | 9.2 | 1.9 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: SEK 11.00 per share · yield 5.87% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 11.000 |
| 2025 | 11.000 |
| 2024 | 8.000 |
| 2023 | 6.000 |
| 2022 | 6.000 |
| 2021 | 5.000 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · Yahoo Finance annual statements · period ended 31 Dec 2025
| Revenue | SEK 55,717,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | SEK 2,093,000,000 |
| EBIT | SEK 826,000,000 |
| Net income | SEK 142,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | SEK 1,064,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | SEK -848,000,000 |
| Debt | SEK 3,876,000,000 |
| Cash | SEK 1,725,000,000 |
| Working capital | SEK 5,886,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 97,800,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | SEK 11.0000 |