Tesco PLC
Tesco PLC, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a grocery retailer in the United Kingdom, Republic of Ireland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary. The company offers grocery products through its stores, as well as online. It is also involved in the food and drink wholesaling activitie…
Tesco PLC, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a grocery retailer in the United Kingdom, Republic of Ireland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary. The company offers grocery products through its stores, as well as online. It is also involved in the food and drink wholesaling activities. In addition, the company provides mobile virtual network operating services, as well as insurance products, such as for home, travel, pet, and car insurance products. Further, the company operates a network of convenience stores; and offers AI-enabled science, software, and trusted advice; and consultancy services. Tesco PLC was founded in 1919 and is based in Welwyn Garden City, the United Kingdom.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart.
Other models: GBP 4.07–7.45 (median 4.73). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using Fiscal year 2026 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 3.84% growth, 2.4% terminal growth, and 9.2% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 3.84%, discount rate 9.20%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 3.8% (sector default 5.3%, own revenue history 4.7%, analyst revenue consensus 2.7%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 2.7% a year; the growth assumption used is 3.8%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — GBP 5.13 (-6.6%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— GBP 4.07 (-25.9%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— GBP 5.13 (-6.6%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— GBP 4.73 (-14.0%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— GBP 7.45 (+35.5%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— GBP 5.12 (-6.9%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— GBP 22.09 (+301.6%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear GBP 3.32 | -65.6% |
| Base GBP 5.13 | -7.1% |
| Bull GBP 8.51 | 35.3% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At GBP 5.50 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.4%, discount 9.2%).
Compare: the market implies 5.1% a year, this model assumes 3.8%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.2% | 6.40 | 5.03 | 4.06 | 3.33 | 2.78 |
| 1.8% | 7.16 | 5.65 | 4.58 | 3.78 | 3.16 |
| 3.8% | 7.98 | 6.31 | 5.13 | 4.26 | 3.58 |
| 5.8% | 8.87 | 7.03 | 5.74 | 4.77 | 4.03 |
| 7.8% | 9.82 | 7.80 | 6.38 | 5.33 | 4.51 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 62 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +4.7% a year | 12 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 2.2x EBITDA | 10 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 7% | 0 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Staples
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSCO.L (this company) | GBP 5.50 | -7.1% | 20.3 | 3.2 | 2.6% | 62 |
| ORK.OL Orkla ASA | NOK 103.30 | 31.4% | 14.7 | 2.4 | 9.7% | 82 |
| WN.TO George Weston Limited | CAD 109.72 | 26.2% | 39.8 | 9.1 | 1.2% | 72 |
| KHC Kraft Heinz | USD 25.32 | 25.2% | – | 0.8 | 6.3% | 36 |
| CA.PA Carrefour SA | EUR 13.59 | 24.1% | 29.1 | 0.8 | 8.7% | 72 |
| ABF.L Associated British Foods plc | GBP 19.83 | 19.1% | 15.0 | 1.2 | 3.2% | 82 |
| ADM Archer Daniels Midland | USD 70.47 | 16.8% | 13.7 | 1.4 | 3.0% | 64 |
| AXFO.ST Axfood AB | SEK 281.90 | 8.5% | 24.8 | 8.1 | 3.1% | 70 |
| DLTR Dollar Tree | USD 137.94 | 0.3% | 16.3 | 7.7 | – | 72 |
| Peer median | 16.3 | 1.9 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: GBP 0.00 per share · yield 0.03% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 0.001 |
| 2025 | 0.001 |
| 2024 | 0.001 |
| 2023 | 0.001 |
| 2022 | 0.001 |
| 2021 | 0.007 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2026 · EODHD annual statements · period ended 28 Feb 2026
| Revenue | GBP 73,712,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | GBP 5,011,000,000 |
| EBIT | GBP 3,116,000,000 |
| Net income | GBP 1,787,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | GBP 2,799,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | GBP 1,344,000,000 |
| Debt | GBP 15,080,000,000 |
| Cash | GBP 4,164,000,000 |
| Working capital | GBP -5,846,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 6,606,000,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | GBP 0.1418 |