The Berkeley Group Holdings plc
The Berkeley Group Holdings plc, together with its subsidiaries, builds homes and neighbourhoods in the United Kingdom. The company engages in the residential-led mixed-use development and ancillary activities; commercial and land selling activities. In addition, it also provides affordable housing…
The Berkeley Group Holdings plc, together with its subsidiaries, builds homes and neighbourhoods in the United Kingdom. The company engages in the residential-led mixed-use development and ancillary activities; commercial and land selling activities. In addition, it also provides affordable housing in partnership with the public sector. It operates under the Berkeley, St Edward, St George, St James, St Joseph, and St William brands. The Berkeley Group Holdings plc was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cobham, the United Kingdom.Priced within the modelled range
Other models: GBP 38.35–59.88 (median 46.24). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using Fiscal year 2026 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 2% growth, 3.1% terminal growth, and 10.8% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 2%, discount rate 10.80%, terminal growth 3.10% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 2.0% (sector default 7.2%, own revenue history 0.4%, analyst revenue consensus -7.3%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 7.2% a year (Medium confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of -7.3% a year; the growth assumption used is 2.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — GBP 44.31 (+19.3%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— GBP 38.35 (+3.3%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— GBP 44.31 (+19.3%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— GBP 46.24 (+24.5%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— GBP 59.88 (+61.2%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— GBP 44.39 (+19.5%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— GBP 107.22 (+188.7%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear GBP 34.37 | -8.1% |
| Base GBP 44.31 | 16.2% |
| Bull GBP 61.46 | 39.6% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At GBP 37.14 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 3.1%, discount 10.8%).
Compare: the market implies -2.5% a year, this model assumes 2.0%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0% | 49.51 | 42.84 | 37.89 | 34.08 | 31.05 |
| 0.0% | 53.81 | 46.44 | 40.98 | 36.77 | 33.43 |
| 2.0% | 58.45 | 50.33 | 44.31 | 39.67 | 35.99 |
| 4.0% | 63.45 | 54.50 | 47.88 | 42.78 | 38.74 |
| 6.0% | 68.83 | 59.00 | 51.72 | 46.13 | 41.68 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
6 months price change: +10.92% · GBP 37.38 · Market data through 05 Nov 2026 ; dashed line is today’s model base value (GBP 44.31). The fair value is today’s estimate, not what the model said in the past.
Saved price history is current through 05 Nov 2026; last refreshed 06 Nov 2026 08:12 (4 hours, 34 minutes ago).
07 May 2026Range GBP 31.70 – 37.7005 Nov 2026
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 78 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 4 of 5 years | 16 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +0.4% a year | 12 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net cash | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 19% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Discretionary
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKG.L (this company) | GBP 37.14 | 16.2% | 11.2 | 1.0 | – | 78 |
| KGF.L Kingfisher plc | GBP 3.72 | 45.2% | 27.0 | 1.1 | 3.3% | 74 |
| BWY.L Bellway p.l.c. | GBP 23.01 | 43.6% | 14.0 | 0.8 | 3.1% | 70 |
| INCH.L Inchcape plc | GBP 6.41 | 37.3% | 9.0 | 1.9 | 4.1% | 80 |
| ZAL.DE Zalando SE | EUR 27.49 | 36.6% | 108.5 | 2.6 | – | 80 |
| DECK Deckers Brands | USD 87.74 | 34.9% | 11.2 | 5.1 | – | 100 |
| EXPE Expedia Group | USD 272.48 | 29.6% | 15.8 | 20.2 | 0.7% | 100 |
| BKNG Booking Holdings | USD 168.72 | 28.9% | 17.7 | – | 1.0% | 100 |
| PETS.L Pets at Home Group Plc | GBP 2.58 | 25.2% | 18.8 | 1.2 | 2.9% | 82 |
| Peer median | 16.8 | 1.9 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: GBP 0.00 per share.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.003 |
| 2024 | 0.025 |
| 2023 | 0.013 |
| 2022 | 0.002 |
| 2021 | 0.038 |
| 2020 | 0.021 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2026 · EODHD annual statements · period ended 30 Apr 2026
| Revenue | GBP 2,383,300,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | GBP 450,100,000 |
| EBIT | GBP 446,800,000 |
| Net income | GBP 318,300,000 |
| Free cash flow | GBP 305,400,000 |
| Capital expenditures | GBP 0 |
| Debt | GBP 664,000,000 |
| Cash | GBP 1,023,300,000 |
| Working capital | GBP 4,245,700,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 96,200,000 |