Carvana
Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars. It provides vehicle acquisition, inspection and reconditioning, online search and shopping experience, financing, complementary products, logistics network and distinctive fulfillment expe…
Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars. It provides vehicle acquisition, inspection and reconditioning, online search and shopping experience, financing, complementary products, logistics network and distinctive fulfillment experience, and post-sale customer support services. The company also operates auction sites. Carvana Co. was founded in 2012 and is based in Tempe, Arizona.Looks overvalued
Other models: USD 3.13–30.87 (median 16.67). The recommended value is 37% above that median, so treat the upside with extra caution.
Why: Latest free cash flow is depressed by heavy investment or one-off items, so a three-year average is used instead.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price above modeled range
Normalised free-cash-flow DCF using a three-year average of free cash flow, because the latest figure is depressed by heavy investment or one-off items, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 17.65% growth, 3.1% terminal growth, and 10.8% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice. Low confidence: the modelled value is far from the market price, which usually means the model does not capture this company well (for example expected growth well above its history).
Assumptions: growth 17.65%, discount rate 10.80%, terminal growth 3.10% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 17.6% (sector default 7.2%, own revenue history 12.2%, analyst revenue consensus 25.6%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 7.2% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 25.6% a year; the growth assumption used is 17.7%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Latest free cash flow is depressed by heavy investment or one-off items, so a three-year average is used instead.
Compare models- Recommended: Normalised free-cash-flow DCF — USD 22.91 (-68.2%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 30.87 (-57.2%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 32.75 (-54.6%)
Not used: Not chosen: Normalised free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 16.67 (-76.9%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 3.13 (-95.7%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 32.31 (-55.2%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 138.50 (+92.1%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 16.26 | -343.3% |
| Base USD 22.91 | -214.6% |
| Bull USD 34.42 | -109.4% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 72.08 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 3.1%, discount 10.8%).
Compare: the market implies 47.6% a year, this model assumes 17.7%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Normalised free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.6% | 27.43 | 22.64 | 19.10 | 16.38 | 14.22 |
| 15.6% | 30.03 | 24.80 | 20.95 | 17.98 | 15.63 |
| 17.7% | 32.80 | 27.11 | 22.91 | 19.69 | 17.13 |
| 19.7% | 35.76 | 29.58 | 25.01 | 21.51 | 18.73 |
| 21.7% | 38.91 | 32.20 | 27.25 | 23.44 | 20.43 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
5 years price change: +50.40% · USD 72.08 · Market data through 05 Nov 2026 ; dashed line is today’s model base value (USD 22.91). The fair value is today’s estimate, not what the model said in the past.
Saved price history is current through 05 Nov 2026; last refreshed 06 Nov 2026 08:12 (4 hours, 35 minutes ago).
03 Jan 2022Range USD 0.77 – 95.6905 Nov 2026
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 52 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 4 of 5 years profitable | 16 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 4 of 5 years | 16 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +19.2% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 6.3x EBITDA | 0 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 1% | 0 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Discretionary
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVNA (this company) | USD 72.08 | -214.6% | 31.3 | 12.3 | – | 52 |
| KGF.L Kingfisher plc | GBP 3.72 | 45.2% | 27.0 | 1.1 | 3.3% | 74 |
| BWY.L Bellway p.l.c. | GBP 23.01 | 43.6% | 14.0 | 0.8 | 3.1% | 70 |
| INCH.L Inchcape plc | GBP 6.41 | 37.3% | 9.0 | 1.9 | 4.1% | 80 |
| ZAL.DE Zalando SE | EUR 27.49 | 36.6% | 108.5 | 2.6 | – | 80 |
| DECK Deckers Brands | USD 87.74 | 34.9% | 11.2 | 5.1 | – | 100 |
| EXPE Expedia Group | USD 272.48 | 29.6% | 15.8 | 20.2 | 0.7% | 100 |
| BKNG Booking Holdings | USD 168.72 | 28.9% | 17.7 | – | 1.0% | 100 |
| PETS.L Pets at Home Group Plc | GBP 2.58 | 25.2% | 18.8 | 1.2 | 2.9% | 82 |
| Peer median | 16.8 | 1.9 | ||||
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 12:43
| Revenue | USD 27,451,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 407,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 136,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 1,706,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 1,113,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 217,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 5,616,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 3,049,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD 6,498,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 739,910,000 |