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HOLN.SW

Holcim AG

Holcim AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials and solutions in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, Middle East, and Africa. It provides foundation, flooring, walling and roofing products, including cement, clinker, and other cementitious materials; ready-mix concrete; aggregat… Holcim AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials and solutions in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, Middle East, and Africa. It provides foundation, flooring, walling and roofing products, including cement, clinker, and other cementitious materials; ready-mix concrete; aggregates, such as crushed stone, gravel, and sand; and precast, concrete products, asphalts, mortars, roofing systems, insulation systems, tile adhesives, facade solutions, and contracting and services. The company also provides digital services through HOLCIM+ platform and digital concrete services. Its products are used in infrastructure projects, such as tunnels, railways and train stations, airports and ports, and bridges; housing projects, including individual and collective housing; commercial projects comprising offices, retail, and public buildings; and industrial projects consisting of renewable energy, oil and gas, and mining. The company sells its products under the ECOPact, ECOPlanet, ECOCycle, Ytong, Aggneo, Hydromedia, ZinCo Holcim, Elevate, Airium, PRB Group, Cantillana, Flachdach Technologie, Izolbet, Disensa, Tector, DYNAMax, Agilia, Ductal, Artevia, Humes, Tensolite, Compaktuna, and other service brands. The company was formerly known as LafargeHolcim Ltd and changed its name to Holcim AG in May 2021. Holcim AG was founded in 1833 and is headquartered in Zug, Switzerland.
Market price
CHF 73.84
Overvalued by 47.9%
Base value (FCFF (steady state)) is 47.9% below the market price
Data: Price updated 06 Nov 2026 18:22; FY2025, period ended 31 Dec 2025 from Yahoo Finance (downloaded 2 days ago).
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Verdict

Looks overvalued

PriceCHF 73.84
Fair value range28.50–56.18base 38.49
Estimate reliabilityLow
5-year outlook–

5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly.

Why: Latest free cash flow is depressed by heavy investment or one-off items, so a three-year average is used instead.

Start with the price and fair value range, then review the data dates and assumptions below. Estimates are not predictions or investment advice.

FCFF (steady state)

Market price above modeled range

Showing the FCFF (steady state) you selected on the company card, using 3% growth, 2.6% terminal growth and 9.8% discount. The range varies these assumptions slightly; it is illustrative, not investment advice.

Assumptions: growth 3% (limited from 3.34% because the latest annual revenue declined), discount rate 9.80%, terminal growth 2.60%. See a worked example.

Blended growth assumption: 3.3% (sector default 5.8%, own revenue history -10.0%, analyst revenue consensus 8.8%).

Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 8.8% a year; the growth assumption used is 3.0%.

Adjust assumptions

Show the recommended model instead

Why this model: Latest free cash flow is depressed by heavy investment or one-off items, so a three-year average is used instead.

Compare models
  • Recommended: Normalised free-cash-flow DCF — CHF 68.07 (-7.8%)
  • EPS-based Gordon proxy — CHF 338.95 (+359.0%)
    Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
  • DCF (trailing free cash flow) — CHF 39.26 (-46.8%)
    Not used: Free cash flow is only 13% of net income, so a cash-flow model is probably depressed by investment timing.
  • FCFF (steady state) — CHF 38.49 (-47.9%)
    Not used: Free cash flow is only 13% of net income, so a cash-flow model is probably depressed by investment timing.
  • EV/EBITDA (12x) — CHF 51.23 (-30.6%)
    Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
  • Fade DCF (10-year growth fade) — CHF 39.23 (-46.9%)
    Not used: Free cash flow is only 13% of net income, so a cash-flow model is probably depressed by investment timing.
  • EV/Sales (Rule of 40) — CHF 106.37 (+44.0%)
    Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
Illustrative range / share CHF 28.50–56.18
Base scenario / share CHF 38.49
Margin of safety (share of value) Above the bull case
Bear CHF 28.50-159.1%
Base CHF 38.49-91.8%
Bull CHF 56.18-31.4%

Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.

Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.

Price history and fair value

6 months price change: +1.24% · CHF 73.26 · Market data through 06 Nov 2026 ; dashed line is today’s model base value (CHF 38.49). The fair value is today’s estimate, not what the model said in the past.

Saved price history is current through 06 Nov 2026; last refreshed 06 Nov 2026 18:33 (0 minutes ago).

07 May 2026Range CHF 62.84 – 77.5206 Nov 2026

Latest news

Headlines provided by EODHD. Articles may mention multiple companies and are not investment recommendations.

More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials

Quality score: 84 / 100

Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.

Profitability5 of 5 years profitable20 / 20
Cash generationfree cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years20 / 20
Growthrevenue -5.1% a year4 / 20
Balance sheetnet debt 1.4x EBITDA20 / 20
MarginsEBITDA margin 22%20 / 20

Peers in Materials

Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.

CompanyPriceMargin of safetyP/EP/BYieldQuality
HOLN.SW (this company) CHF 73.84 -8.5% 3.1 – 4.2% 74
MT.AS ArcelorMittal S.A. EUR 54.82 40.6% 25.8 0.9 1.1% 70
AMCR Amcor USD 45.84 -3.4% 19.5 1.8 6.8% 90
CF CF Industries USD 118.57 -4.8% 13.2 4.0 1.7% 90
UPM.HE UPM-Kymmene Oyj EUR 22.68 -12.0% 17.4 1.2 6.6% 70
YAR.OL Yara International ASA NOK 401.00 -17.7% 7.7 1.2 1.2% 74
MOS Mosaic Company (The) USD 22.33 -22.8% 13.2 0.6 3.9% 62
VSVS.L Vesuvius plc GBP 4.52 -37.0% 21.7 1.0 5.1% 68
SSAB-A.ST SSAB AB SEK 90.72 -57.0% 15.9 1.2 2.9% 62
Peer median 16.7 1.2

Dividends

Paid in the last 12 months: CHF 1.70 per share · yield 2.30% at the current price.

YearDividends per share
2026 (so far)1.700
20251.575
20241.423
20231.270
20221.118
20211.016
Sector Materials
Exchange SIX Swiss Exchange
Currency CHF

Annual financial statement

Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · Yahoo Finance annual statements · period ended 31 Dec 2025

RevenueCHF 15,724,000,000
EBITDACHF 2,639,000,000
EBITCHF 1,288,000,000
Net incomeCHF 13,179,000,000
Free cash flowCHF 1,727,000,000
Capital expendituresCHF -1,061,000,000
DebtCHF 8,724,000,000
CashCHF 5,443,000,000
Working capitalCHF 2,402,000,000
Shares outstanding554,067,227
Reported dividends per shareCHF 3.1000