Moncler S.p.A.
Consumer Discretionary company listed on Borsa Italiana. Business description not available yet.
Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart.
Other models: EUR 30.89–57.19 (median 37.73). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using Fiscal year 2025 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 6.97% growth, 3.1% terminal growth, and 10.8% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 6.97%, discount rate 10.80%, terminal growth 3.10% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 7.0% (sector default 7.2%, own revenue history 6.4%, analyst revenue consensus 7.2%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 7.2% a year; the growth assumption used is 7.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — EUR 44.12 (+2.3%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— EUR 30.89 (-28.4%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— EUR 44.12 (+2.3%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— EUR 37.73 (-12.5%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— EUR 57.19 (+32.6%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— EUR 43.88 (+1.7%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— EUR 110.58 (+156.3%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear EUR 33.49 | -28.8% |
| Base EUR 44.12 | 2.2% |
| Bull EUR 62.48 | 31.0% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At EUR 43.14 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 3.1%, discount 10.8%).
Compare: the market implies 6.4% a year, this model assumes 7.0%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | 50.25 | 42.94 | 37.53 | 33.36 | 30.05 |
| 5.0% | 54.70 | 46.66 | 40.71 | 36.12 | 32.49 |
| 7.0% | 59.48 | 50.65 | 44.12 | 39.09 | 35.10 |
| 9.0% | 64.62 | 54.94 | 47.78 | 42.27 | 37.91 |
| 11.0% | 70.12 | 59.53 | 51.70 | 45.68 | 40.91 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 100 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 4 of 4 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 4 of 4 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +6.4% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net cash | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 40% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Discretionary
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MONC.MI (this company) | EUR 43.14 | 2.2% | 18.7 | – | 3.0% | 100 |
| KGF.L Kingfisher plc | GBP 3.72 | 45.2% | 27.0 | 1.1 | 3.3% | 74 |
| BWY.L Bellway p.l.c. | GBP 23.01 | 43.6% | 14.0 | 0.8 | 3.1% | 70 |
| INCH.L Inchcape plc | GBP 6.41 | 37.3% | 9.0 | 1.9 | 4.1% | 80 |
| ZAL.DE Zalando SE | EUR 27.49 | 36.6% | 108.5 | 2.6 | – | 80 |
| DECK Deckers Brands | USD 87.74 | 34.9% | 11.2 | 5.1 | – | 100 |
| LULU Lululemon Athletica | USD 111.77 | 33.3% | 8.9 | 2.6 | – | 100 |
| EXPE Expedia Group | USD 272.48 | 29.6% | 15.8 | 20.2 | 0.7% | 100 |
| BKNG Booking Holdings | USD 168.72 | 28.9% | 17.7 | – | 1.0% | 100 |
| Peer median | 14.9 | 2.6 | ||||
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · Yahoo Finance annual statements · period ended 31 Dec 2025
| Revenue | EUR 3,132,128,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | EUR 1,266,661,000 |
| EBIT | EUR 929,977,000 |
| Net income | EUR 626,670,000 |
| Free cash flow | EUR 740,401,000 |
| Capital expenditures | EUR -220,114,000 |
| Debt | EUR 1,128,458,000 |
| Cash | EUR 1,461,277,000 |
| Working capital | EUR 1,392,875,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 271,598,300 |
| Reported dividends per share | EUR 1.3000 |