D. R. Horton
D.R. Horton, Inc. operates as a homebuilding company in East, North, Southeast, South Central, Southwest, and Northwest regions in the United States. It engages in the acquisition and development of land; and construction and sale of residential homes in 126 markets across 36 states under the names…
D.R. Horton, Inc. operates as a homebuilding company in East, North, Southeast, South Central, Southwest, and Northwest regions in the United States. It engages in the acquisition and development of land; and construction and sale of residential homes in 126 markets across 36 states under the names of D.R. Horton. The company also constructs and sells single-family detached homes; and attached homes, such as townhomes and duplexes. In addition, it provides mortgage financing and title agency services; and engages in the residential lot development business. Further, the company develops, constructs, owns, leases, and sells multi-family and single-family rental properties; conducts insurance-related operations; and owns water rights and other water-related assets, as well as non-residential real estate, including ranch land and improvements. It primarily serves homebuyers. D.R. Horton, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Arlington, Texas.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart.
Other models: USD 133.50–154.93 (median 140.66). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using Fiscal year 2026 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 3% growth, 3% terminal growth, and 10.8% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 3% (limited from 5.09% because the latest annual revenue declined), discount rate 10.80%, terminal growth 3%. See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 5.1% (sector default 7.2%, own revenue history -0.3%, analyst revenue consensus 6.8%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 6.8% a year; the growth assumption used is 3.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 140.66 (-8.1%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 133.50 (-12.8%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 140.66 (-8.1%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 140.66 (-8.1%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 154.93 (+1.2%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 140.66 (-8.1%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 336.90 (+120.0%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 102.98 | -48.7% |
| Base USD 140.66 | -8.8% |
| Bull USD 205.25 | 25.4% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 153.11 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 3.0%, discount 10.8%).
Compare: the market implies 4.8% a year, this model assumes 3.0%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.0% | 160.25 | 135.10 | 116.39 | 101.91 | 90.38 |
| 1.0% | 176.49 | 148.73 | 128.08 | 112.12 | 99.41 |
| 3.0% | 193.99 | 163.40 | 140.66 | 123.09 | 109.10 |
| 5.0% | 212.81 | 179.18 | 154.18 | 134.87 | 119.51 |
| 7.0% | 233.05 | 196.13 | 168.70 | 147.52 | 130.67 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 74 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue -0.3% a year | 4 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 1.0x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 12% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Discretionary
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHI (this company) | USD 153.11 | -8.8% | 15.1 | 1.9 | 1.2% | 74 |
| KGF.L Kingfisher plc | GBP 3.70 | 45.5% | 26.8 | 1.1 | 3.3% | 74 |
| BWY.L Bellway p.l.c. | GBP 22.72 | 44.3% | 13.8 | 0.8 | 3.1% | 70 |
| INCH.L Inchcape plc | GBP 6.33 | 38.1% | 8.8 | 1.9 | 4.2% | 80 |
| ZAL.DE Zalando SE | EUR 27.37 | 36.9% | 108.0 | 2.6 | – | 80 |
| DECK Deckers Brands | USD 85.74 | 36.4% | 10.9 | 5.0 | – | 100 |
| LULU Lululemon Athletica | USD 109.52 | 34.7% | 8.7 | 2.6 | – | 100 |
| EXPE Expedia Group | USD 268.04 | 30.8% | 15.6 | 19.8 | 0.7% | 100 |
| BKNG Booking Holdings | USD 166.20 | 29.9% | 17.4 | – | 1.0% | 100 |
| Peer median | 14.7 | 2.6 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 1.80 per share · yield 1.18% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 1.350 |
| 2025 | 1.650 |
| 2024 | 1.300 |
| 2023 | 1.050 |
| 2022 | 0.925 |
| 2021 | 0.825 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2026 · EODHD annual statements · period ended 30 Sep 2026
| Revenue | USD 33,043,400,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 4,022,700,000 |
| EBIT | USD 3,906,200,000 |
| Net income | USD 2,889,400,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 3,346,800,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 160,400,000 |
| Debt | USD 6,053,900,000 |
| Cash | USD 2,060,400,000 |
| Working capital | USD 28,636,600,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 285,800,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 1.7960 |