Mosaic Company (The)
The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. It operates in three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company owns and operates mines and production facilities, which produce concentrated phosphate crop …
The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. It operates in three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company owns and operates mines and production facilities, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, as well as concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and MicroEssentials, a value-added ammoniated phosphate product. It also mines, processes, and sells potash to crop nutrient manufacturers, distributors, retailers, and to customers for industrial use; and owns and operates mines, chemical plants, crop nutrient blending and bagging facilities, port terminals and warehouses, which produce and sell concentrated phosphate and potash-based crop nutrients, and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients. In addition, the company produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under the K-Mag brand; and purchases phosphate, potash, and nitrogen products to produce blended crop nutrients. Further, it offers triple superphosphate, single superphosphate, and dicalcium phosphate; feed phosphate under the Biofos and Nexfos brands; potash for de-icing and as a water softener regenerant; and phosphogypsum. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts through its sales force. It also exports its products. The company operates in the United States, Brazil, China, Canada, Paraguay, Argentina, Japan, Colombia, India, Australia, Peru, Mexico, Honduras, the Dominican Republic, Indonesia, and internationally. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: EV/EBITDA (12x) disagrees strongly.
Other models: USD 22.17–78.55 (median 50.36). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow cannot be used (negative or far below earnings, with too little history to normalise it), so value is based on reinvestment-adjusted earnings.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Earnings-based DCF using Fiscal year 2025 net income, of which 70% is treated as distributable after reinvestment, with no extra debt or cash adjustment because net income is already after interest. Used because free cash flow or dividends do not give a usable base. Base assumptions are 2% growth, 2.6% terminal growth, and 9.8% discount; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 2%, discount rate 9.80%, terminal growth 2.60% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 2.0% (sector default 5.8%, own revenue history -10.0%, analyst revenue consensus 6.0%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 6.0% a year; the growth assumption used is 2.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow cannot be used (negative or far below earnings, with too little history to normalise it), so value is based on reinvestment-adjusted earnings.
Compare models- Recommended: Earnings-based DCF — USD 16.48 (-24.9%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 22.17 (+1.0%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: free cash flow is zero or negative.
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FCFF (steady state)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: free cash flow is zero or negative.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 78.55 (+257.7%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: free cash flow is zero or negative.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 156.49 (+612.6%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 12.26 | -79.2% |
| Base USD 16.48 | -33.2% |
| Bull USD 24.06 | 8.7% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 21.96 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.6%, discount 9.8%).
Compare: the market implies 8.8% a year, this model assumes 2.0%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Earnings-based DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0% | 19.04 | 16.03 | 13.85 | 12.21 | 10.92 |
| 0.0% | 20.85 | 17.52 | 15.12 | 13.30 | 11.88 |
| 2.0% | 22.80 | 19.13 | 16.48 | 14.48 | 12.91 |
| 4.0% | 24.91 | 20.87 | 17.95 | 15.75 | 14.02 |
| 6.0% | 27.17 | 22.73 | 19.53 | 17.11 | 15.21 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 42 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 4 of 5 years profitable | 16 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 3 of 5 years | 12 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue -11.9% a year | 4 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 4.2x EBITDA | 0 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 12% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Materials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOS (this company) | USD 21.96 | -33.2% | 13.0 | – | 4.0% | 79 |
| MT.AS ArcelorMittal S.A. | EUR 54.26 | 41.2% | 25.6 | 0.8 | 1.1% | 70 |
| CF CF Industries | USD 117.79 | -2.3% | 8.2 | 2.0 | 2.2% | 84 |
| HOLN.SW Holcim AG | CHF 72.98 | -7.2% | 3.1 | – | 4.2% | 74 |
| UPM.HE UPM-Kymmene Oyj | EUR 22.37 | -10.4% | 17.1 | 1.2 | 6.7% | 70 |
| YAR.OL Yara International ASA | NOK 396.60 | -16.5% | 7.6 | 1.1 | 1.2% | 74 |
| AMCR Amcor | USD 44.22 | -16.6% | 18.9 | 0.6 | 6.0% | 90 |
| VSVS.L Vesuvius plc | GBP 4.49 | -36.1% | 21.5 | 1.0 | 5.2% | 68 |
| SSAB-A.ST SSAB AB | SEK 90.56 | -56.7% | 15.9 | 1.2 | 2.9% | 62 |
| Peer median | 16.5 | 1.1 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 0.88 per share · yield 4.01% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 0.660 |
| 2025 | 0.880 |
| 2024 | 0.840 |
| 2023 | 1.050 |
| 2022 | 0.563 |
| 2021 | 0.275 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · Yahoo Finance annual statements · period ended 31 Dec 2025
| Revenue | USD 12,052,400,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 2,504,300,000 |
| EBIT | USD 1,454,400,000 |
| Net income | USD 540,700,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD -534,600,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD -1,359,400,000 |
| Debt | USD 5,279,500,000 |
| Cash | USD 276,600,000 |
| Working capital | USD 1,254,700,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 318,900,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 0.8800 |