Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a cruise company in North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It offers itineraries to destinations, such as Europe, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, South America, Africa, Canada, Bermuda, the Caribbe…
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a cruise company in North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It offers itineraries to destinations, such as Europe, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, South America, Africa, Canada, Bermuda, the Caribbean, and Alaska; and inter-island itinerary in Hawaii. The company also provides features, amenities, and activities, including various accommodations, dining venues, bars and lounges, spas, casino and retail shopping areas, and entertainment choices; shore excursions at each port of call, and air transportation and hotel packages for stays before or after a voyage. It offers its products and services under the Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises brands. The company was founded in 1966 and is based in Miami, Florida.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: EV/EBITDA (12x) is somewhat apart.
Other models: USD 24.22–37.65 (median 30.94). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow cannot be used (negative or far below earnings, with too little history to normalise it), so value is based on reinvestment-adjusted earnings.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Earnings-based DCF using TTM through 30 Sep 2026 net income, of which 70% is treated as distributable after reinvestment, with no extra debt or cash adjustment because net income is already after interest. Used because free cash flow or dividends do not give a usable base. Base assumptions are 10.92% growth, 3.1% terminal growth, and 10.8% discount; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 10.92%, discount rate 10.80%, terminal growth 3.10% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 10.9% (sector default 7.2%, own revenue history 26.6%, analyst revenue consensus 4.9%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 4.9% a year; the growth assumption used is 10.9%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow cannot be used (negative or far below earnings, with too little history to normalise it), so value is based on reinvestment-adjusted earnings.
Compare models- Recommended: Earnings-based DCF — USD 21.07 (+18.6%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 24.22 (+36.4%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: free cash flow is zero or negative.
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FCFF (steady state)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: free cash flow is zero or negative.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 37.65 (+112.0%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: free cash flow is zero or negative.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 132.43 (+645.6%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 15.81 | -12.4% |
| Base USD 21.07 | 15.7% |
| Bull USD 30.16 | 41.1% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 17.76 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 3.1%, discount 10.8%).
Compare: the market implies 6.7% a year, this model assumes 10.9%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
How the Earnings-based DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | 24.31 | 20.63 | 17.90 | 15.80 | 14.14 |
| 8.9% | 26.45 | 22.42 | 19.43 | 17.13 | 15.31 |
| 10.9% | 28.75 | 24.33 | 21.07 | 18.55 | 16.56 |
| 12.9% | 31.21 | 26.39 | 22.82 | 20.07 | 17.90 |
| 14.9% | 33.85 | 28.58 | 24.69 | 21.70 | 19.33 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 60 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 4 of 5 years profitable | 16 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 1 of 5 years | 4 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +20.4% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 5.5x EBITDA | 0 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 26% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Discretionary
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCLH (this company) | USD 17.76 | 15.7% | 9.8 | 2.6 | – | 60 |
| KGF.L Kingfisher plc | GBP 3.72 | 45.2% | 27.0 | 1.1 | 3.3% | 74 |
| BWY.L Bellway p.l.c. | GBP 23.01 | 43.6% | 14.0 | 0.8 | 3.1% | 70 |
| INCH.L Inchcape plc | GBP 6.41 | 37.3% | 9.0 | 1.9 | 4.1% | 80 |
| ZAL.DE Zalando SE | EUR 27.49 | 36.6% | 108.5 | 2.6 | – | 80 |
| DECK Deckers Brands | USD 87.74 | 34.9% | 11.2 | 5.1 | – | 100 |
| LULU Lululemon Athletica | USD 111.77 | 33.3% | 8.9 | 2.6 | – | 100 |
| EXPE Expedia Group | USD 272.48 | 29.6% | 15.8 | 20.2 | 0.7% | 100 |
| BKNG Booking Holdings | USD 168.72 | 28.9% | 17.7 | – | 1.0% | 100 |
| Peer median | 14.9 | 2.6 | ||||
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:37
| Revenue | USD 10,162,928,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 2,680,320,000 |
| EBIT | USD 1,420,186,000 |
| Net income | USD 832,938,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD -530,678,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 2,729,690,000 |
| Debt | USD 15,086,503,000 |
| Cash | USD 256,508,000 |
| Working capital | USD -4,456,334,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 460,423,326 |