Occidental Petroleum
Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through Oil and Gas and Midstream and Marketing. The Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops,…
Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through Oil and Gas and Midstream and Marketing. The Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. This segment also optimizes its transportation and storage capacity and invests in entities. The Midstream and Marketing segment purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports and stores oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide, and power. Occidental Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.Looks overvalued
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart.
Other models: USD 22.83–43.37 (median 33.10). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price above modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using Fiscal year 2025 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 2% growth, 2.5% terminal growth, and 9.2% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 2%, discount rate 9.20%, terminal growth 2.50% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 2.0% (sector default 4.6%, own revenue history -4.5%, analyst revenue consensus -5.9%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of -5.9% a year; the growth assumption used is 2.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 33.32 (-40.9%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 22.83 (-59.5%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 42.02 (-25.4%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 2.5x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 43.37 (-23.1%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 2.5x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: EBITDA is missing, zero or negative.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 42.07 (-25.3%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 2.5x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: revenue is missing.
| Bear USD 20.81 | -170.8% |
| Base USD 33.32 | -69.1% |
| Bull USD 54.23 | -3.9% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 56.36 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.5%, discount 9.2%).
Compare: the market implies 6.9% a year, this model assumes 2.0%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0% | 53.53 | 40.96 | 32.14 | 25.60 | 20.55 |
| 0.0% | 60.54 | 46.65 | 36.90 | 29.67 | 24.11 |
| 2.0% | 68.11 | 52.78 | 42.02 | 34.06 | 27.93 |
| 4.0% | 76.26 | 59.38 | 47.54 | 38.78 | 32.04 |
| 6.0% | 85.03 | 66.48 | 53.48 | 43.86 | 36.45 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 84 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue -8.9% a year | 4 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 0.7x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 56% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Energy
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OXY (this company) | USD 56.36 | -69.1% | 35.0 | 1.6 | 1.7% | 73 |
| HBR.L Harbour Energy plc | GBP 2.62 | 61.8% | – | 1.4 | 7.9% | 92 |
| FANG Diamondback Energy | USD 179.58 | 36.7% | 24.4 | 1.3 | 2.4% | 100 |
| SHEL.L Shell plc | GBP 36.98 | 32.8% | 8.6 | 1.4 | 3.0% | 84 |
| AKSO.OL Aker Solutions ASA | NOK 35.92 | 22.8% | 6.8 | 1.5 | 9.1% | 75 |
| BP.L BP p.l.c. | GBP 5.54 | 19.2% | – | – | 4.4% | 69 |
| BWLPG.OL BW LPG Limited | NOK 208.40 | 7.3% | 7.5 | 1.8 | 1.2% | 100 |
| EOG EOG Resources | USD 144.89 | 6.1% | 11.1 | 2.4 | 2.8% | 92 |
| TTE.PA TotalEnergies SE | EUR 79.16 | 5.4% | 8.9 | 1.5 | 4.3% | 84 |
| Peer median | 8.7 | 1.5 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 1.04 per share · yield 1.85% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 0.800 |
| 2025 | 0.960 |
| 2024 | 0.880 |
| 2023 | 0.720 |
| 2022 | 0.520 |
| 2021 | 0.040 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · SEC EDGAR annual filings · period ended 31 Dec 2025
| Revenue | USD 21,593,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD |
| EBIT | USD |
| Net income | USD 1,612,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 4,105,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD -6,427,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 21,397,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 1,968,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD -601,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 1,000,100,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 0.9600 |