Starbucks
Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of coffee internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee, tea, and other beverages, roasted whole beans …
Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of coffee internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee, tea, and other beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, complementary food, packaged coffees, single-serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks Coffee, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Ethos, and Starbucks Reserve brands. Starbucks Corporation was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.Looks overvalued
Other models: USD 27.40–45.23 (median 29.59). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price above modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using Fiscal year 2026 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 5.02% growth, 3.1% terminal growth, and 10.8% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice. Low confidence: the modelled value is far from the market price, which usually means the model does not capture this company well (for example expected growth well above its history).
Assumptions: growth 5.02%, discount rate 10.80%, terminal growth 3.10% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 5.0% (sector default 7.2%, own revenue history 4.1%, analyst revenue consensus 4.4%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 3.2% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 4.4% a year; the growth assumption used is 5.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 31.05 (-70.0%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 29.59 (-71.4%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 31.05 (-70.0%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 27.40 (-73.5%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 45.23 (-56.3%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 30.91 (-70.1%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 119.49 (+15.5%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 19.39 | -433.8% |
| Base USD 31.05 | -233.2% |
| Bull USD 51.20 | -102.1% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 103.48 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 3.1%, discount 10.8%).
Compare: the market implies 29.0% a year, this model assumes 5.0%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0% | 37.55 | 29.60 | 23.71 | 19.17 | 15.57 |
| 3.0% | 42.49 | 33.73 | 27.25 | 22.25 | 18.29 |
| 5.0% | 47.82 | 38.18 | 31.05 | 25.57 | 21.21 |
| 7.0% | 53.54 | 42.97 | 35.14 | 29.12 | 24.34 |
| 9.0% | 59.69 | 48.09 | 39.52 | 32.93 | 27.70 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 72 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +4.1% a year | 12 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 3.2x EBITDA | 10 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 15% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Discretionary
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX (this company) | USD 103.48 | -233.2% | 46.8 | – | 2.4% | 72 |
| KGF.L Kingfisher plc | GBP 3.70 | 45.5% | 26.8 | 1.1 | 3.3% | 74 |
| BWY.L Bellway p.l.c. | GBP 22.72 | 44.3% | 13.8 | 0.8 | 3.1% | 70 |
| INCH.L Inchcape plc | GBP 6.33 | 38.1% | 8.8 | 1.9 | 4.2% | 80 |
| ZAL.DE Zalando SE | EUR 27.37 | 36.9% | 108.0 | 2.6 | – | 80 |
| DECK Deckers Brands | USD 85.74 | 36.4% | 10.9 | 5.0 | – | 100 |
| LULU Lululemon Athletica | USD 109.52 | 34.7% | 8.7 | 2.6 | – | 100 |
| EXPE Expedia Group | USD 268.04 | 30.8% | 15.6 | 19.8 | 0.7% | 100 |
| BKNG Booking Holdings | USD 166.20 | 29.9% | 17.4 | – | 1.0% | 100 |
| Peer median | 14.7 | 2.6 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 2.48 per share · yield 2.40% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 1.860 |
| 2025 | 2.450 |
| 2024 | 2.320 |
| 2023 | 2.160 |
| 2022 | 2.000 |
| 2021 | 1.840 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2026 · EODHD annual statements · period ended 30 Sep 2026
| Revenue | USD 37,910,600,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 5,855,700,000 |
| EBIT | USD 4,372,400,000 |
| Net income | USD 2,526,700,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 3,724,800,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 1,263,600,000 |
| Debt | USD 22,413,600,000 |
| Cash | USD 3,864,200,000 |
| Working capital | USD -2,442,400,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 1,143,400,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 2.4704 |