BP p.l.c.
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading activities, as well as so…
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading activities, as well as solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses. The company also offers aviation fuel products and services, such as jet fuel; aviation gasoline; UL91 aviation fuel; and sustainable aviation fuel. In addition, it engages in the convenience and retail fuel; EV charging; Castrol lubricants and fluids; B2B; midstream; crude oil production; refining and oil trading; and bioenergy businesses. The company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.After signing in, return here and select “Add to watchlist”. Saving companies requires a verified email address.
Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly.
Other models: GBP 0.05–20.90 (median 8.59). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Start with the price and fair value range, then review the data dates and assumptions below. Estimates are not predictions or investment advice.
Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using Fiscal year 2025 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 2% growth, 2.5% terminal growth, and 9.2% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 2%, discount rate 9.20%, terminal growth 2.50% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 2.0% (sector default 4.6%, own revenue history -7.8%, analyst revenue consensus -7.2%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of -7.2% a year; the growth assumption used is 2.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — GBP 6.85 (+22.6%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— GBP 0.05 (-99.1%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— GBP 8.35 (+49.5%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 204.9x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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FCFF (steady state)
— GBP 8.59 (+53.6%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 204.9x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— GBP 20.90 (+273.8%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— GBP 8.36 (+49.6%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 204.9x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— GBP 41.09 (+635.0%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear GBP 4.69 | -19.1% |
| Base GBP 6.85 | 18.4% |
| Bull GBP 10.46 | 46.6% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At GBP 5.59 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.5%, discount 9.2%).
Compare: the market implies -4.8% a year, this model assumes 2.0%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
Sensitivity: base value per share
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
These are assumption-based scenarios, not a confidence interval. Scroll horizontally to see all discount rates.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0% | 10.34 | 8.17 | 6.65 | 5.52 | 4.65 |
| 0.0% | 11.55 | 9.15 | 7.47 | 6.22 | 5.26 |
| 2.0% | 12.86 | 10.21 | 8.35 | 6.98 | 5.92 |
| 4.0% | 14.26 | 11.35 | 9.31 | 7.80 | 6.63 |
| 6.0% | 15.78 | 12.58 | 10.33 | 8.67 | 7.39 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
1 year price change: +28.25% · GBP 5.59 · Market data through 06 Nov 2026 ; dashed line is today’s model base value (GBP 6.85). The fair value is today’s estimate, not what the model said in the past.
Saved price history is current through 06 Nov 2026; last refreshed 06 Nov 2026 18:14 (18 minutes ago).
06 Nov 2025Range GBP 4.01 – 6.3906 Nov 2026
Latest news
Headlines provided by EODHD. Articles may mention multiple companies and are not investment recommendations.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 70 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 4 of 5 years profitable | 16 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue -7.5% a year | 4 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 0.6x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 19% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Energy
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BP.L (this company) | GBP 5.59 | 18.4% | – | – | 4.4% | 69 |
| HBR.L Harbour Energy plc | GBP 2.63 | 61.8% | – | 1.4 | 7.9% | 92 |
| FANG Diamondback Energy | USD 179.58 | 36.7% | 24.4 | 1.3 | 2.4% | 100 |
| SHEL.L Shell plc | GBP 37.23 | 32.4% | 8.6 | 1.4 | 3.0% | 84 |
| AKSO.OL Aker Solutions ASA | NOK 36.00 | 22.7% | 6.8 | 1.5 | 9.1% | 75 |
| BWLPG.OL BW LPG Limited | NOK 203.60 | 9.4% | 7.4 | 1.7 | 1.3% | 100 |
| MPC Marathon Petroleum | USD 377.32 | 8.1% | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.0% | 74 |
| EOG EOG Resources | USD 144.89 | 6.1% | 11.1 | 2.4 | 2.8% | 92 |
| TTE.PA TotalEnergies SE | EUR 79.65 | 4.9% | 9.0 | 1.5 | 4.3% | 84 |
| Peer median | 8.6 | 1.5 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: GBP 0.00 per share · yield 0.04% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 0.002 |
| 2025 | 0.002 |
| 2024 | 0.002 |
| 2023 | 0.002 |
| 2022 | 0.002 |
| 2021 | 0.002 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · Yahoo Finance annual statements · period ended 31 Dec 2025
| Revenue | GBP 189,335,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | GBP 30,696,000,000 |
| EBIT | GBP 12,874,000,000 |
| Net income | GBP 55,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | GBP 11,272,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | GBP -13,221,000,000 |
| Debt | GBP 72,529,000,000 |
| Cash | GBP 36,714,000,000 |
| Working capital | GBP 21,205,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 15,913,000,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | GBP 0.2451 |