UPM-Kymmene Oyj
UPM-Kymmene Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the forest-based bioindustry worldwide. The company offers softwood, birch, and eucalyptus pulp for tissue, specialty papers, packaging papers, graphic papers, and board; sawn timber for joinery, packaging, furniture, planning, and constru…
UPM-Kymmene Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the forest-based bioindustry worldwide. The company offers softwood, birch, and eucalyptus pulp for tissue, specialty papers, packaging papers, graphic papers, and board; sawn timber for joinery, packaging, furniture, planning, and construction industries; and wood-based renewable diesel and renewable naphtha for transport and petrochemical industry. It also generates electricity through hydro, thermal, and nuclear power plants; provides financial portfolio management services, as well as engages in forestry water protection. Further, it provides wood and wood-based biomass, and forestry services for forest investors and owners; biomedical products, such as nano-fibrillar cellulose for clinical and life science applications; wood-based lignin products for industrial use; and wood-based biochemicals for replacing fossil-based raw materials. It also manufactures plywood and veneer products. It serves distributors, industrial users, publishers, cataloguers, retailers, printing houses, merchants, converters, and label stock manufacturers; label printers; brand owners; and producers of tissue, board, specialty, and graphic paper. The company was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Helsinki, Finland.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Free-cash-flow DCF agrees.
Other models: EUR 17.62–29.15 (median 21.36). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Uses reported dividends of EUR 1.5000 per share from TTM through 30 Sep 2026, with 2.23% perpetual growth (base growth capped at the terminal rate) and 9.8% discount rates. The range varies growth and discount assumptions by 1 percentage point; it is illustrative, not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 2.23%, discount rate 9.80%, terminal growth 2.60% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 2.2% (sector default 5.8%, own revenue history -6.2%, analyst revenue consensus 4.7%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 4.7% a year; the growth assumption used is 2.2%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.
Compare models- Recommended: Dividend discount model — EUR 20.26 (-9.6%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— EUR 17.62 (-21.3%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— EUR 20.93 (-6.5%)
Not used: Not chosen: Dividend discount model ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— EUR 21.36 (-4.6%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— EUR 29.15 (+30.1%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— EUR 20.95 (-6.5%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— EUR 60.40 (+169.6%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear EUR 15.87 | -41.2% |
| Base EUR 20.26 | -10.6% |
| Bull EUR 27.80 | 19.4% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At EUR 22.40 the market implies perpetual dividend growth of about this rate (discount rate 9.8%).
Compare: the market implies 2.9% a year, this model assumes 2.2%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Dividend discount model value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price. Dividend growth cannot exceed the long-run rate, so duplicate capped scenarios are omitted.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.8% | 15.40 | 13.94 | 12.74 | 11.72 | 10.86 |
| 0.2% | 19.86 | 17.54 | 15.71 | 14.22 | 12.99 |
| 2.2% | 27.53 | 23.34 | 20.26 | 17.89 | 16.02 |
| 2.6% | 29.60 | 24.82 | 21.38 | 18.77 | 16.73 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 70 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 4 of 5 years | 16 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue -5.4% a year | 4 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 2.0x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 16% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Materials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPM.HE (this company) | EUR 22.40 | -10.6% | 17.2 | 1.2 | 6.7% | 70 |
| MT.AS ArcelorMittal S.A. | EUR 56.00 | 39.3% | 26.4 | 0.9 | 1.1% | 70 |
| CF CF Industries | USD 118.57 | -3.0% | 8.2 | 2.0 | 2.2% | 84 |
| HOLN.SW Holcim AG | CHF 73.70 | -8.3% | 3.1 | – | 4.2% | 74 |
| YAR.OL Yara International ASA | NOK 396.30 | -16.1% | 7.6 | 1.1 | 1.2% | 74 |
| AMCR Amcor | USD 45.84 | -20.9% | 19.6 | 0.6 | 5.8% | 90 |
| MOS Mosaic Company (The) | USD 22.33 | -35.5% | 13.2 | – | 3.9% | 79 |
| VSVS.L Vesuvius plc | GBP 4.60 | -39.4% | 22.0 | 1.0 | 5.0% | 68 |
| SSAB-A.ST SSAB AB | SEK 92.94 | -60.9% | 16.3 | 1.3 | 2.8% | 62 |
| Peer median | 14.7 | 1.1 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: EUR 1.50 per share · yield 6.70% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 1.500 |
| 2025 | 1.500 |
| 2024 | 1.500 |
| 2023 | 1.500 |
| 2022 | 1.300 |
| 2021 | 1.261 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 14:03
| Revenue | EUR 9,374,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | EUR 1,537,000,000 |
| EBIT | EUR 1,018,000,000 |
| Net income | EUR 688,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | EUR 1,006,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | EUR 359,000,000 |
| Debt | EUR 3,734,000,000 |
| Cash | EUR 663,000,000 |
| Working capital | EUR 1,521,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 527,323,999 |