Kesko Oyj
Kesko Oyj engages in the chain operations in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark, and Poland. The company operates through Grocery Trade, Building and Technical Trade, and Car Trade divisions. The Grocery Trade division is involved in the wholesale and B2B trade of grocerie…
Kesko Oyj engages in the chain operations in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark, and Poland. The company operates through Grocery Trade, Building and Technical Trade, and Car Trade divisions. The Grocery Trade division is involved in the wholesale and B2B trade of groceries, and retail of home and specialty goods under the K-retailer brand; offer online grocery services; and operates as a foodservice provider and wholesaler, as well as store retail chains under the K-Citymarket, K-Supermarket, K-Market, and Kespro. The Building and Technical Trade division engages in the wholesale, retail, and B2B trade of building and home improvement, and HEPAC and electrical products and services; and operates retail stores chain under the K-Rauta, K-Bygg, Byggmakker, and Davidsen, as well as serves technical trade customers under Onninen brand names. The Car Trade division is involved in the import, market, and retail of Volkswagen, Audi, SEAT, CUPRA, Bentley, and Porsche passenger cars, as well as Volkswagen commercial vehicles under K-Auto brand name; purchase and retail of used cars; operation of leasing business for private and corporate customers; and other services, including repair and maintenance, as well as sale of spare parts and accessories; charging network for electric vehicles under the K- Lataus name; and sports trade comprising Intersport and budget sport chains. Kesko Oyj was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Helsinki, Finland.Priced within the modelled range
Other models: EUR 14.87–30.45 (median 16.71). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using TTM through 30 Sep 2026 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 4.71% growth, 2.4% terminal growth, and 9.2% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 4.71%, discount rate 9.20%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 4.7% (sector default 5.3%, own revenue history 1.8%, analyst revenue consensus 5.8%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 7.9% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 5.8% a year; the growth assumption used is 4.7%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — EUR 17.34 (-31.9%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— EUR 16.71 (-34.4%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— EUR 17.34 (-31.9%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— EUR 14.87 (-41.7%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— EUR 30.45 (+19.5%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— EUR 17.26 (-32.3%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— EUR 87.56 (+243.6%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear EUR 10.30 | -147.4% |
| Base EUR 17.34 | -46.9% |
| Bull EUR 30.44 | 16.3% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At EUR 25.48 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.4%, discount 9.2%).
Compare: the market implies 11.2% a year, this model assumes 4.7%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
Sensitivity: base value per share
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
These are assumption-based scenarios, not a confidence interval. Scroll horizontally to see all discount rates.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.7% | 22.33 | 16.97 | 13.18 | 10.37 | 8.19 |
| 2.7% | 25.27 | 19.36 | 15.19 | 12.08 | 9.69 |
| 4.7% | 28.43 | 21.93 | 17.34 | 13.93 | 11.30 |
| 6.7% | 31.84 | 24.70 | 19.66 | 15.91 | 13.02 |
| 8.7% | 35.50 | 27.67 | 22.14 | 18.04 | 14.87 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 72 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +2.5% a year | 12 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 2.7x EBITDA | 10 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 10% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Staples
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KESKOB.HE (this company) | EUR 25.48 | -46.9% | 23.0 | 3.6 | 3.5% | 72 |
| ORK.OL Orkla ASA | NOK 102.30 | 32.1% | 14.5 | 2.3 | 9.8% | 82 |
| KHC Kraft Heinz | USD 24.46 | 27.8% | – | 0.8 | 6.5% | 36 |
| WN.TO George Weston Limited | CAD 109.72 | 26.2% | 39.8 | 9.1 | 1.2% | 72 |
| CA.PA Carrefour SA | EUR 13.49 | 24.7% | 28.9 | 0.8 | 8.8% | 72 |
| ABF.L Associated British Foods plc | GBP 19.60 | 20.0% | 14.9 | 1.2 | 3.2% | 82 |
| ADM Archer Daniels Midland | USD 70.55 | 16.7% | 13.8 | 1.4 | 3.0% | 64 |
| AXFO.ST Axfood AB | SEK 283.20 | 8.1% | 24.9 | 8.2 | 3.1% | 70 |
| DLTR Dollar Tree | USD 135.65 | 1.9% | 16.1 | 7.6 | – | 72 |
| Peer median | 16.1 | 1.9 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: EUR 0.90 per share · yield 3.53% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 0.900 |
| 2025 | 0.930 |
| 2024 | 0.770 |
| 2023 | 1.080 |
| 2022 | 1.060 |
| 2021 | 0.750 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 14:12
| Revenue | EUR 13,033,500,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | EUR 1,308,400,000 |
| EBIT | EUR 695,700,000 |
| Net income | EUR 441,899,999 |
| Free cash flow | EUR 630,400,000 |
| Capital expenditures | EUR 433,500,000 |
| Debt | EUR 3,823,600,000 |
| Cash | EUR 251,300,000 |
| Working capital | EUR -176,400,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 398,281,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | EUR 0.8999 |