Evolution AB
About the company
Evolution AB (publ) develops, produces, markets, and licenses live casino and slots solutions to gaming operators in Europe, Asia, North America, Latin America, and internationally. It offers casino and live games shows under the Evolution and Ezugi brands; online casino under the NetEnt brand name; and casino games and software comprising jackpot system, a smart spins bonus management application, and tournaments gamification under the Red Tiger brand. It also provides slots titles and game mechanics under the Big Time Gaming brand; online casino platform and games under the Nolimit City brand name; HD spinning gaming wheels under the DigiWheel brand; and B2B social streaming games under the Livespins brand name. The company was formerly known as Evolution Gaming Group AB (publ). Evolution AB (publ) was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Price within modeled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
The range depends on model assumptions and data; it is not a prediction or investment advice.
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Market price within modeled range
Showing the EPS-based Gordon proxy you selected on the company card, using 3% growth, 3% terminal growth and 10.8% discount. The range varies these assumptions slightly; it is illustrative, not investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 3% (limited from 9.26% because the latest annual revenue declined), discount rate 10.80%, terminal growth 3%. See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 9.3% (sector default 7.2%, own revenue history 18.6%, analyst revenue consensus 5.6%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 5.6% a year; the growth assumption used is 3.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Show the recommended model instead
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — SEK 966.70 (+14.1%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— SEK 812.73 (-4.1%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— SEK 966.70 (+14.1%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— SEK 966.70 (+14.1%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— SEK 1022.26 (+20.6%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— SEK 966.70 (+14.1%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— SEK 1756.80 (+107.3%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear SEK 640.58 | -32.3% |
| Base SEK 812.73 | -4.3% |
| Bull SEK 932.24 | 9.1% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
6 months price change: +32.27% · SEK 847.60 · Market data through 06 Nov 2026 ; dashed line is today’s model base value (SEK 812.73). The fair value is today’s estimate, not what the model said in the past.
Saved price history is current through 06 Nov 2026; last refreshed 06 Nov 2026 18:14 (1 hour, 2 minutes ago).
07 May 2026Range SEK 619.00 – 900.0006 Nov 2026
Latest news
Headlines provided by EODHD. Articles may mention multiple companies and are not investment recommendations.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 100 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +10.1% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net cash | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 67% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Discretionary
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVO.ST (this company) | SEK 847.60 | 12.3% | 13.8 | 4.0 | 3.7% | 100 |
| KGF.L Kingfisher plc | GBP 3.75 | 44.8% | 27.2 | 1.1 | 3.3% | 74 |
| BWY.L Bellway p.l.c. | GBP 22.90 | 43.9% | 13.9 | 0.8 | 3.1% | 70 |
| EXPE Expedia Group | USD 272.48 | 41.7% | 17.1 | 21.8 | 0.7% | 100 |
| INCH.L Inchcape plc | GBP 6.39 | 37.5% | 8.9 | 1.9 | 4.2% | 80 |
| ZAL.DE Zalando SE | EUR 27.72 | 36.1% | 109.4 | 2.6 | – | 80 |
| DECK Deckers Brands | USD 87.74 | 34.9% | 11.2 | 5.1 | – | 100 |
| LULU Lululemon Athletica | USD 111.77 | 33.3% | 8.9 | 2.6 | – | 100 |
| BKNG Booking Holdings | USD 168.72 | 28.9% | 17.7 | – | 1.0% | 100 |
| Peer median | 15.5 | 2.6 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: SEK 0.00 per share.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 30.640 |
| 2024 | 31.020 |
| 2023 | 22.540 |
| 2022 | 14.580 |
| 2021 | 6.880 |
| 2020 | 4.410 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 18:42
| Revenue | SEK 23,453,939,548 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | SEK 15,602,229,946 |
| EBIT | SEK 13,703,782,753 |
| Net income | SEK 11,637,334,390 |
| Free cash flow | SEK 13,382,885,297 |
| Capital expenditures | SEK 981,673,727 |
| Debt | SEK 1,211,568,011 |
| Cash | SEK 7,275,748,273 |
| Working capital | SEK 5,864,554,068 |
| Shares outstanding | 189,082,752 |