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LSG.OL

Lerøy Seafood Group ASA

Lerøy Seafood Group ASA produces, processes, markets, sells, and distributes seafood products. The company operates in three segments: Wildcatch; Farming; and Value-Added Processing, Sales, and Distribution. It offers salmon and trout, whole fish, fillets, portions, smoked, graved, block, cured, re… Lerøy Seafood Group ASA produces, processes, markets, sells, and distributes seafood products. The company operates in three segments: Wildcatch; Farming; and Value-Added Processing, Sales, and Distribution. It offers salmon and trout, whole fish, fillets, portions, smoked, graved, block, cured, ready-to-eat, and ready-to-cook products. The company also catches and processes various whitefish, including fresh and frozen options, as well as products comprising shrimp, crab, and mussels. In addition, it provides seaweed products and value-added products, such as breaded fish, burgers, patties, and other ready-to-cook or ready-to-eat seafood products; and crustaceans and molluscs, seaweed, and fresh and frozen consequence products for industrial processing. The company markets its products primarily under the Norway Seafoods, Arctic Supreme, Fjord Trout, Aurora Salmon, Fossen, Sea Eagle, Lerøy, and M"r brands to supermarkets, restaurants, canteens, hotels, wholesalers, retailers, food service companies, and industrial customers. It operates in the European Union, Norway, Asia, rest of Europe, the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in Bergen, Norway. Lerøy Seafood Group ASA operates as a subsidiary of Austevoll Seafood ASA.
Market price
NOK 42.30
Within modeled range
Base value (Dividend discount model) is 11.0% below the market price
5-year outlook: 10.5% per year · forecast
Data: Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:48; TTM through 30 Jun 2026, period ended 30 Jun 2026 from EODHD (downloaded 12 min ago). Next earnings: 10 Nov 2026 (in 4 days)
Verdict

Priced within the modelled range

PriceNOK 42.30
Fair value range28.81–53.85base 37.65
Estimate reliabilityHigh
5-year outlook10.5% / yr≈ NOK 69.73 in 5 yrs

Other models: NOK 17.97–68.85 (median 66.69). The recommended value is in line with them.

Why: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.

Details and the full model are below.

Dividend discount model

Market price within modeled range

Uses reported dividends of NOK 2.5000 per share from TTM through 30 Jun 2026, with 2.4% perpetual growth (base growth capped at the terminal rate) and 9.2% discount rates. The range varies growth and discount assumptions by 1 percentage point; it is illustrative, not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.

Assumptions: growth 8.12%, discount rate 9.20%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.

Blended growth assumption: 8.1% (sector default 5.3%, own revenue history 8.8%, analyst revenue consensus 9.2%).

5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 10.5% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.

Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 9.2% a year; the growth assumption used is 8.1%.

Adjust assumptions

Why this model: Dividends are a large share of earnings, so the cash paid to shareholders is the best guide to value.

Compare models
  • Recommended: Dividend discount model — NOK 37.65 (-11.0%)
  • EPS-based Gordon proxy — NOK 17.97 (-57.5%)
    Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
  • DCF (trailing free cash flow) — NOK 86.34 (+104.1%)
    Not used: Free cash flow is 4.0x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
  • FCFF (steady state) — NOK 66.69 (+57.7%)
    Not used: Free cash flow is 4.0x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
  • EV/EBITDA (12x) — NOK 68.85 (+62.8%)
    Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
  • Fade DCF (10-year growth fade) — NOK 85.71 (+102.6%)
    Not used: Free cash flow is 4.0x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
  • EV/Sales (Rule of 40) — NOK 209.65 (+395.6%)
    Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
Illustrative range / share NOK 28.81–53.85
Base scenario / share NOK 37.65
Margin of safety (share of value) Priced for base-to-bull outcomes
Bear NOK 28.81-46.8%
Base NOK 37.65-12.4%
Bull NOK 53.8521.5%

Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.

Market-implied expectations 3.1% dividend growth

At NOK 42.30 the market implies perpetual dividend growth of about this rate (discount rate 9.2%).

Compare: the market implies 3.1% a year, this model assumes 2.4%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.

Sensitivity: base value per share

How the Dividend discount model value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price. Dividend growth cannot exceed the long-run rate, so duplicate capped scenarios are omitted.

These are assumption-based scenarios, not a confidence interval. Scroll horizontally to see all discount rates.

Growth \ Discount 7.2%8.2%9.2%10.2%11.2%
-1.6% 27.95 25.10 22.78 20.85 19.22
0.4% 36.91 32.18 28.52 25.61 23.24
2.4% 53.33 44.14 37.65 32.82 29.09

Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.

Price history and fair value

No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.

More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials

Quality score: 90 / 100

Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.

Profitability5 of 5 years profitable20 / 20
Cash generationfree cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years20 / 20
Growthrevenue +5.9% a year20 / 20
Balance sheetnet debt 0.8x EBITDA20 / 20
MarginsEBITDA margin 11%10 / 20

Peers in Consumer Staples

Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.

CompanyPriceMargin of safetyP/EP/BYieldQuality
LSG.OL (this company) NOK 42.30 -12.4% 35.4 1.5 5.9% 90
ORK.OL Orkla ASA NOK 102.30 32.1% 14.5 2.3 9.8% 82
KHC Kraft Heinz USD 24.46 27.8% – 0.8 6.5% 36
WN.TO George Weston Limited CAD 109.72 26.2% 39.8 9.1 1.2% 72
CA.PA Carrefour SA EUR 13.49 24.7% 28.9 0.8 8.8% 72
ABF.L Associated British Foods plc GBP 19.60 20.0% 14.9 1.2 3.2% 82
ADM Archer Daniels Midland USD 70.55 16.7% 13.8 1.4 3.0% 64
AXFO.ST Axfood AB SEK 283.20 8.1% 24.9 8.2 3.1% 70
DLTR Dollar Tree USD 135.65 1.9% 16.1 7.6 – 72
Peer median 16.1 1.9

Dividends

Paid in the last 12 months: NOK 2.50 per share · yield 5.91% at the current price.

YearDividends per share
2026 (so far)2.500
20252.500
20242.500
20232.500
20222.500
20212.000
Sector Consumer Staples
Exchange Euronext Oslo
Currency NOK

Trailing 12-month financials

TTM through 30 Jun 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 15:58

RevenueNOK 33,563,632,000
EBITDANOK 3,667,237,000
EBITNOK 1,686,017,000
Net incomeNOK 710,586,000
Free cash flowNOK 2,837,189,000
Capital expendituresNOK 3,175,430,000
DebtNOK 5,571,023,000
CashNOK 2,561,558,000
Working capitalNOK 7,105,748,000
Shares outstanding595,475,920