CF Industries
About the company
CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production of ammonia in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments. The company offers ammonia products; nitrogen products, such as granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, and ammonium nitrate; diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, and nitric acid products. It serves cooperatives, retailers, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.
Price below modeled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF agrees.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
The range depends on model assumptions and data; it is not a prediction or investment advice.
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Market price below modeled range
Showing the EV/Sales (Rule of 40) you selected on the company card, using 2% growth, 2.6% terminal growth and 9.8% discount. The range varies these assumptions slightly; it is illustrative, not investment advice. Low confidence: the modelled value is far from the market price, which usually means the model does not capture this company well (for example expected growth well above its history).
Assumptions: growth 2%, discount rate 9.80%, terminal growth 2.60% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 2.0% (sector default 5.8%, own revenue history 2.0%, analyst revenue consensus -10.0%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of -10.9% a year; the growth assumption used is 2.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Show the recommended model instead
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 120.87 (+1.9%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 117.31 (-1.1%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 142.18 (+19.9%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 146.20 (+23.3%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 231.44 (+95.2%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 142.34 (+20.0%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 411.27 (+246.9%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 305.43 | 61.2% |
| Base USD 411.27 | 71.2% |
| Bull USD 517.12 | 77.1% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
1 year price change: +48.59% · USD 118.57 · Market data through 05 Nov 2026 ; dashed line is today’s model base value (USD 411.27). The fair value is today’s estimate, not what the model said in the past.
Saved price history is current through 05 Nov 2026; last refreshed 06 Nov 2026 18:14 (1 hour, 48 minutes ago).
06 Nov 2025Range USD 74.99 – 139.2705 Nov 2026
Latest news
Headlines provided by EODHD. Articles may mention multiple companies and are not investment recommendations.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 92 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +2.0% a year | 12 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 0.6x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 46% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Materials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF (this company) | USD 118.57 | 1.9% | 13.2 | 4.0 | 1.7% | 92 |
| MT.AS ArcelorMittal S.A. | EUR 54.82 | 40.6% | 25.8 | 0.9 | 1.1% | 70 |
| AMCR Amcor | USD 45.84 | -3.4% | 19.5 | 1.8 | 6.8% | 90 |
| HOLN.SW Holcim AG | CHF 73.26 | -7.6% | 3.1 | – | 4.2% | 74 |
| UPM.HE UPM-Kymmene Oyj | EUR 22.68 | -12.0% | 17.4 | 1.2 | 6.6% | 70 |
| YAR.OL Yara International ASA | NOK 401.00 | -17.7% | 7.7 | 1.2 | 1.2% | 74 |
| MOS Mosaic Company (The) | USD 22.33 | -22.8% | 13.2 | 0.6 | 3.9% | 70 |
| VSVS.L Vesuvius plc | GBP 4.52 | -37.0% | 21.7 | 1.0 | 5.1% | 68 |
| SSAB-A.ST SSAB AB | SEK 90.72 | -57.0% | 15.9 | 1.2 | 2.9% | 62 |
| Peer median | 16.7 | 1.2 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 2.10 per share · yield 1.77% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 1.600 |
| 2025 | 2.000 |
| 2024 | 2.000 |
| 2023 | 1.600 |
| 2022 | 1.500 |
| 2021 | 1.200 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · EODHD annual statements · period ended 31 Dec 2025
| Revenue | USD 7,084,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 3,292,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 2,394,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 1,455,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 1,802,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 950,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 3,947,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 1,982,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD 2,098,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 162,200,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 2.0099 |