Airbnb
Airbnb, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a platform for stays, experiences, and services worldwide. The company's marketplace connects hosts and guests online or through mobile devices to book spaces, experiences, and services. It also offers gift cards. The company was formerly known…
Airbnb, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a platform for stays, experiences, and services worldwide. The company's marketplace connects hosts and guests online or through mobile devices to book spaces, experiences, and services. It also offers gift cards. The company was formerly known as AirBed & Breakfast, Inc. and changed its name to Airbnb, Inc. in November 2010. Airbnb, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly.
Other models: USD 53.97–107.17 (median 80.57). The recommended value is 91% above that median, so treat the upside with extra caution.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using Fiscal year 2025 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 12.47% growth, 3.1% terminal growth, and 10.8% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 12.47%, discount rate 10.80%, terminal growth 3.10% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 12.5% (sector default 7.2%, own revenue history 19.6%, analyst revenue consensus 11.6%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 11.6% a year; the growth assumption used is 12.5%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 153.94 (-16.8%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 53.97 (-70.8%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 153.94 (-16.8%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 107.17 (-42.1%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— not applicable
Not used: Cannot be computed: EBITDA is missing, zero or negative.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 152.39 (-17.6%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 56.32 (-69.6%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 117.23 | -57.8% |
| Base USD 153.94 | -20.2% |
| Bull USD 217.38 | 14.9% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 185.00 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 3.1%, discount 10.8%).
Compare: the market implies 17.4% a year, this model assumes 12.5%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | 177.13 | 151.25 | 132.11 | 117.38 | 105.70 |
| 10.5% | 191.92 | 163.60 | 142.65 | 126.54 | 113.77 |
| 12.5% | 207.78 | 176.82 | 153.94 | 136.34 | 122.39 |
| 14.5% | 224.75 | 190.97 | 166.00 | 146.81 | 131.61 |
| 16.5% | 242.90 | 206.09 | 178.89 | 157.99 | 141.44 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 100 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +13.5% a year | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Discretionary
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABNB (this company) | USD 185.00 | -11.4% | 35.9 | 12.4 | – | 100 |
| KGF.L Kingfisher plc | GBP 3.70 | 45.5% | 26.8 | 1.1 | 3.3% | 74 |
| BWY.L Bellway p.l.c. | GBP 22.72 | 44.3% | 13.8 | 0.8 | 3.1% | 70 |
| DKNG DraftKings Inc. | USD 17.16 | 39.2% | – | 13.5 | – | 58 |
| INCH.L Inchcape plc | GBP 6.33 | 38.1% | 8.8 | 1.9 | 4.2% | 80 |
| ZAL.DE Zalando SE | EUR 27.37 | 36.9% | 108.0 | 2.6 | – | 80 |
| DECK Deckers Brands | USD 85.74 | 36.4% | 10.9 | 5.0 | – | 100 |
| CVNA Carvana | USD 71.95 | 34.6% | 9.5 | 3.7 | – | 87 |
| EXPE Expedia Group | USD 268.04 | 30.8% | 15.6 | 19.8 | 0.7% | 100 |
| Peer median | 13.8 | 3.2 | ||||
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · SEC EDGAR annual filings · period ended 31 Dec 2025
| Revenue | USD 12,241,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD |
| EBIT | USD 2,544,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 2,511,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 4,646,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD |
| Debt | USD 1,999,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 6,560,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD 5,148,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 623,000,000 |