Airbnb
Airbnb, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a platform for stays, experiences, and services worldwide. The company's marketplace connects hosts and guests online or through mobile devices to book spaces, experiences, and services. It also offers gift cards. The company was formerly known…
Airbnb, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a platform for stays, experiences, and services worldwide. The company's marketplace connects hosts and guests online or through mobile devices to book spaces, experiences, and services. It also offers gift cards. The company was formerly known as AirBed & Breakfast, Inc. and changed its name to Airbnb, Inc. in November 2010. Airbnb, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly.
Other models: USD 60.35–125.19 (median 76.60). The recommended value is 108% above that median, so treat the upside with extra caution.
Why: Latest free cash flow is depressed by heavy investment or one-off items, so a three-year average is used instead.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Normalised free-cash-flow DCF using a three-year average of free cash flow, because the latest figure is depressed by heavy investment or one-off items, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 12.47% growth, 3.1% terminal growth, and 10.8% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 12.47%, discount rate 10.80%, terminal growth 3.10% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 12.5% (sector default 7.2%, own revenue history 19.6%, analyst revenue consensus 11.6%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 11.6% a year; the growth assumption used is 12.5%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Latest free cash flow is depressed by heavy investment or one-off items, so a three-year average is used instead.
Compare models- Recommended: Normalised free-cash-flow DCF — USD 159.27 (-6.4%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 60.35 (-64.5%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 176.31 (+3.6%)
Not used: Not chosen: Normalised free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 125.19 (-26.4%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 76.60 (-55.0%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 174.63 (+2.6%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 172.04 (+1.1%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 123.41 | -37.9% |
| Base USD 159.27 | -6.8% |
| Bull USD 221.24 | 23.1% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 170.13 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 3.1%, discount 10.8%).
Compare: the market implies 14.3% a year, this model assumes 12.5%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Normalised free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | 181.92 | 156.64 | 137.94 | 123.55 | 112.15 |
| 10.5% | 196.38 | 168.70 | 148.24 | 132.50 | 120.03 |
| 12.5% | 211.87 | 181.62 | 159.27 | 142.08 | 128.45 |
| 14.5% | 228.45 | 195.45 | 171.05 | 152.30 | 137.45 |
| 16.5% | 246.18 | 210.22 | 183.65 | 163.23 | 147.05 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 100 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +11.9% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net cash | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 23% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Discretionary
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABNB (this company) | USD 170.13 | -6.8% | 37.7 | 13.0 | – | 100 |
| KGF.L Kingfisher plc | GBP 3.72 | 45.2% | 27.0 | 1.1 | 3.3% | 74 |
| BWY.L Bellway p.l.c. | GBP 23.01 | 43.6% | 14.0 | 0.8 | 3.1% | 70 |
| INCH.L Inchcape plc | GBP 6.41 | 37.3% | 9.0 | 1.9 | 4.1% | 80 |
| ZAL.DE Zalando SE | EUR 27.49 | 36.6% | 108.5 | 2.6 | – | 80 |
| DECK Deckers Brands | USD 87.74 | 34.9% | 11.2 | 5.1 | – | 100 |
| LULU Lululemon Athletica | USD 111.77 | 33.3% | 8.9 | 2.6 | – | 100 |
| EXPE Expedia Group | USD 272.48 | 29.6% | 15.8 | 20.2 | 0.7% | 100 |
| BKNG Booking Holdings | USD 168.72 | 28.9% | 17.7 | – | 1.0% | 100 |
| Peer median | 14.9 | 2.6 | ||||
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Jun 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 14:07
| Revenue | USD 13,182,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 3,013,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 2,929,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 2,691,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 4,867,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 7,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 2,496,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 12,069,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD 7,387,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 597,000,000 |