Novo Nordisk A/S
Novo Nordisk A/S, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and distribution of pharmaceutical products. It operates through two segments, Obesity and Diabetes Care, and Rare Disease. The Obesity and Diabetes care segment provides products for diabetes, o…
Novo Nordisk A/S, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and distribution of pharmaceutical products. It operates through two segments, Obesity and Diabetes Care, and Rare Disease. The Obesity and Diabetes care segment provides products for diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular, and other emerging therapy areas. The Rare Disease segment offers products in the areas of rare blood disorders, rare endocrine disorders, and hormone replacement therapy. The company also provides NovoPen 6 and NovoPen Echo Plus, smart insulin pens; Dose Check, an insulin dose guidance application; growth hormone pens and injection needles; and Wegovy pill an oral glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist therapy for weight management. The company has a collaboration with Anthropic accelerate the development of new medicines and advance AI-driven software development. It operates in Europe, Canada, the United States, Japan, Korea, Oceania, Southeast Asia, Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. It has a strategic collaboration with Orbis Medicines to discover and develop oral macrocycle therapeutics for cardiometabolic diseases. The company was formerly known as Novo Industri A/S and changed its name to Novo Nordisk A/S in April 1989. The company was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Bagsvaerd, Denmark.Looks overvalued
Other models: DKK 125.19–463.47 (median 347.09). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price above modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using TTM through 30 Sep 2026 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 7.48% growth, 2.9% terminal growth, and 10.5% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 7.48%, discount rate 10.50%, terminal growth 2.90% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 7.5% (sector default 6.8%, own revenue history 20.4%, analyst revenue consensus 1.4%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 7.5% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 1.4% a year; the growth assumption used is 7.5%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — DKK 155.08 (-41.9%)
-
EPS-based Gordon proxy
— DKK 347.09 (+30.0%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
-
DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— DKK 155.08 (-41.9%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
-
FCFF (steady state)
— DKK 125.19 (-53.1%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
-
EV/EBITDA (12x)
— DKK 463.47 (+73.6%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
-
Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— DKK 153.98 (-42.3%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
-
EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— DKK 896.63 (+235.9%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear DKK 112.08 | -138.2% |
| Base DKK 155.08 | -72.1% |
| Bull DKK 229.90 | -16.1% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At DKK 266.95 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.9%, discount 10.5%).
Compare: the market implies 20.2% a year, this model assumes 7.5%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
Sensitivity: base value per share
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
These are assumption-based scenarios, not a confidence interval. Scroll horizontally to see all discount rates.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5% | 180.80 | 150.81 | 128.71 | 111.75 | 98.33 |
| 5.5% | 198.68 | 165.71 | 141.43 | 122.80 | 108.06 |
| 7.5% | 217.90 | 181.72 | 155.08 | 134.65 | 118.50 |
| 9.5% | 238.53 | 198.89 | 169.72 | 147.35 | 129.67 |
| 11.5% | 260.65 | 217.29 | 185.39 | 160.94 | 141.61 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 100 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +17.2% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 0.4x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 53% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Health Care
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOVO-B.CO (this company) | DKK 266.95 | -72.1% | 10.4 | 5.4 | 4.4% | 100 |
| CNC Centene Corporation | USD 72.02 | 43.3% | 24.4 | 1.6 | – | 72 |
| ZEAL.CO Zealand Pharma A/S | DKK 231.10 | 37.0% | 6.0 | 0.9 | – | 72 |
| CI Cigna | USD 295.59 | 30.1% | 12.2 | 1.8 | 2.1% | 70 |
| BAVA.CO Bavarian Nordic A/S | DKK 238.20 | 13.0% | 11.7 | 1.4 | – | 92 |
| CVS CVS Health | USD 81.72 | 12.0% | 9.5 | 1.3 | 3.2% | 70 |
| AMP.MI Amplifon S.p.A. | EUR 11.17 | 8.7% | 41.1 | – | 2.6% | 72 |
| ZBH Zimmer Biomet | USD 106.85 | 0.5% | 26.6 | 1.6 | 0.9% | 90 |
| GSK.L GSK plc | GBP 18.47 | -3.0% | 17.3 | 4.0 | 3.6% | 92 |
| Peer median | 14.7 | 1.6 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: DKK 11.70 per share · yield 4.38% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 11.700 |
| 2025 | 11.650 |
| 2024 | 9.900 |
| 2023 | 7.075 |
| 2022 | 5.575 |
| 2021 | 4.675 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 14:12
| Revenue | DKK 333,650,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | DKK 176,646,000,000 |
| EBIT | DKK 142,872,000,000 |
| Net income | DKK 113,177,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | DKK 46,256,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | DKK 82,356,000,000 |
| Debt | DKK 117,742,000,000 |
| Cash | DKK 44,151,000,000 |
| Working capital | DKK -38,682,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 4,414,845,124 |
| Reported dividends per share | DKK 11.7549 |