CF Industries
CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production of ammonia in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments. The company offers ammonia products; nitrogen products, such as granular urea, u…
CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production of ammonia in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments. The company offers ammonia products; nitrogen products, such as granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, and ammonium nitrate; diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, and nitric acid products. It serves cooperatives, retailers, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.After signing in, return here and select “Add to watchlist”. Saving companies requires a verified email address.
Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF agrees.
Other models: USD 188.22–258.71 (median 190.09). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Start with the price and fair value range, then review the data dates and assumptions below. Estimates are not predictions or investment advice.
Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using a three-year average of free cash flow, because the latest figure is depressed by heavy investment or one-off items, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 2% growth, 2.6% terminal growth, and 9.8% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 2%, discount rate 9.80%, terminal growth 2.60% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 2.0% (sector default 5.8%, own revenue history -10.0%, analyst revenue consensus -10.0%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of -10.9% a year; the growth assumption used is 2.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 115.14 (-2.3%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 188.22 (+59.8%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 185.13 (+57.2%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 190.09 (+61.4%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 258.71 (+119.6%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 185.32 (+57.3%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 455.80 (+287.0%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 87.81 | -34.1% |
| Base USD 115.14 | -2.3% |
| Bull USD 159.24 | 26.0% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 117.79 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.6%, discount 9.8%).
Compare: the market implies -0.9% a year, this model assumes 2.0%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
Sensitivity: base value per share
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
These are assumption-based scenarios, not a confidence interval. Scroll horizontally to see all discount rates.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0% | 156.18 | 130.61 | 112.13 | 98.15 | 87.19 |
| 0.0% | 171.55 | 143.30 | 122.89 | 107.44 | 95.35 |
| 2.0% | 188.13 | 156.97 | 134.47 | 117.45 | 104.13 |
| 4.0% | 206.00 | 171.70 | 146.93 | 128.21 | 113.56 |
| 6.0% | 225.22 | 187.53 | 160.32 | 139.76 | 123.68 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
Latest news
Headlines provided by EODHD. Articles may mention multiple companies and are not investment recommendations.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 84 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue -8.2% a year | 4 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 0.3x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 42% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Materials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF (this company) | USD 117.79 | -2.3% | 8.2 | 2.0 | 2.2% | 84 |
| MT.AS ArcelorMittal S.A. | EUR 54.26 | 41.2% | 25.6 | 0.8 | 1.1% | 70 |
| HOLN.SW Holcim AG | CHF 72.98 | -7.2% | 3.1 | – | 4.2% | 74 |
| UPM.HE UPM-Kymmene Oyj | EUR 22.37 | -10.4% | 17.1 | 1.2 | 6.7% | 70 |
| YAR.OL Yara International ASA | NOK 396.60 | -16.5% | 7.6 | 1.1 | 1.2% | 74 |
| AMCR Amcor | USD 44.22 | -16.6% | 18.9 | 0.6 | 6.0% | 90 |
| MOS Mosaic Company (The) | USD 21.96 | -33.2% | 13.0 | – | 4.0% | 79 |
| VSVS.L Vesuvius plc | GBP 4.49 | -36.1% | 21.5 | 1.0 | 5.2% | 68 |
| SSAB-A.ST SSAB AB | SEK 90.56 | -56.7% | 15.9 | 1.2 | 2.9% | 62 |
| Peer median | 16.5 | 1.1 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 2.10 per share · yield 1.78% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 1.600 |
| 2025 | 2.000 |
| 2024 | 2.000 |
| 2023 | 1.600 |
| 2022 | 1.500 |
| 2021 | 1.200 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 05 Nov 2026 16:05
| Revenue | USD 7,940,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 3,338,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 2,667,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 2,182,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 2,081,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 1,002,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 3,656,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 2,820,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD 2,718,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 151,600,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 2.5594 |